4.1: Regional Climate Scenarios

Climate Change Simulations

Transient runs of the regional climate models MM5 and RegCM driven with boundary forcings from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 general circulation models (GCM) are used to simulate the climate change signal for the Jordan River area. Projections of future climate conditions, particularly of future spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation, are a central prerequisite for the delineation of adaptation and mitigation strategies. Due to the sharp climatic gradient in the region, global climate scenarios have to be downscaled to higher spatial resolutions to account for regional and local climate patterns. In the dynamic downscaling approach the period 1960 to 2050 is considered: The spatial resolutions of the nested simulations are 54 km, 18 km and 6km. The main focus is set on the delineation of uncertainty ranges and the statistical analysis of extreme events as well as on provision of highly resolved meteorology data from the RCM runs as input data for subsequent impact analysis. For more information read Briefing 03, Briefing 04, Briefing 17; or our studies on climate change: Krischak et al. 2011, Jin et al. 2010, Shafir & Alpert 2010, Samuels et al. 2010, Smiatek et al. 2011, Samuels et al. 2011.

Here you can find a list of the available Climate Change Scenarios.

Fig.: Simulated winter (December to February = DJF) temperature (a) and precipitation change (b). MM5 model in 18km resolution with ECHAM5 boundary forcing.

Subproject Coordinators: Harald Kunstman, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology & Simon Krichak, Tel Aviv University
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