Approach

Modeling approach

The climate scenarios are derived from project 3.
The species level: The present and future distribution of each Israeli terrestrial mammal species is calculated using the MaxEnt model (a relatively new model which works well for small sample sizes) and the maps of present and two future scenarios are compared in order to study changes in distribution.
The assemblage level: The species maps are mounted to create a total species map which contains both species number and probability of occurrence for each 1*1 km grid cell. Similarity indices are computed and drawn on a map to show degree of change between present and two different future scenarios. The direction of change (increase or decrease in species number) was also calculated

Experimental approach

We explored patterns of biodiversity of beetles and small vertebrates in four research stations along a north-south rainfall gradient, using pitfall traps filled with propylene glycol. In the two central stations (Mediterranean and semiarid ecosystems) two climate change scenarios (increasing or decreasing rainfall in winter) are tested experimentally in desiccated and irrigated plots. In each study site, 60 traps were established. Each trap is opened during five (5) consecutive days. We present here our preliminary results from the spring 2006 sampling season.